.”Obi…will most likely split the opposition vote —Dr great oracle.
The PDP’s candidate (Atiku Abubakar) is a Northerner and we believe that the party’s only route to victory is expanding its vote in the South West and North Central states, while retaining large majorities in the SS and SE”
Excerpts of the Fitch Report which predicts victory for BAT in 2023. The Report presents some cold reading; but to those with some knowledge of election science and voter intelligence, it is déjà vu.Flip the first tweet on this thread, Obi’s paths are:
1. Holding down SS/SE
2. Securing 25% in atleast three states in SW, including Lagos & Oyo – two of KKKROL states the G.O tweeted about yesterday
3. Holding down the middle belt as GEJ did in 2011.If the G.O were in Obi’s War Room, he would be looking at battling BAT in the SW and moving resources into the middle belt to ensure that voters come out of that vast belt – about 9m votes are at play there – to vote, so as not to repeat GEJ disaster in the middle belt in 2015.Two things are clear about the NW. Firstly, it has the KKK states with big votes, which represent 12.7% of total votes. Secondly, it is where BAT/AA/RK will battle it out. Fitch is right, Obi won’t have any showing there. If his travels for PDP delegates votes teach anything.
it is that you mobilise resources and presences where you have the absolute advantage to cancel out the deficits from elsewhere. Think Oyo and Rivers. Election science is the koko. Take it or leave it.